Electing Mike Franken would be a Loss for Iowa

RESEARCH DOCUMENT

Prepared by the Grassley Works Campaign

Iowa has a lot at stake on Election Day. Upon re-election, Chuck Grassley will be number one in seniority in the entire U.S. Senate, holding powerful positions on key committees and in Senate leadership — no matter which party wins the majority. If Mike Franken is elected, he would be the most junior member of the Senate. In addition to the steep learning curve for a new senator to become effective, committee assignments and ultimately committee chairmanships are determined by seniority. Senator Grassley worked his way to the top and that puts Iowa on top where he’s able to implement legislative priorities important to our state. Sending Senator Grassley back to the U.S. Senate ensures Iowa keeps punching above its weight in Washington.

By sending Senator Grassley back to the Senate and helping Republicans win the majority, Senator Grassley will continue to leverage Iowa’s voice at the negotiating tables on key issues in the nation’s capital, from taxes to immigration, drug pricing, rural health care and agriculture. He also will be the President pro tempore of the Senate and chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee. He will remain a senior member of the Finance Committee, for which there is always a waiting list of senators hoping to join when they have the requisite seniority. He will continue to be a senior member of the Budget Committee, and he intends to remain an active member of the Agriculture Committee, which will write the next Farm Bill in 2023.

A victory for Mike Franken would be a loss for Iowa. Iowa would lose its place at the head of the policymaking table. Now more than ever, we need Chuck Grassley fighting for Iowa to get our economy back on track.

In an environment that flips to favoring Democrats in November— and the most likely scenario that would send Mike Franken to the U.S. Senate— Mike Franken would be 100 out of 100 in U.S. Senate seniority.
In an environment that reflects current predictions—with the exception of Iowa for this hypothetical— Mike Franken’s best hope would be 98 out of 100 in seniority.
In an environment that favors Republicans, but Iowa flips, Franken would be 96 out of 100. This is the least likely scenario in this outline.

How seniority is determined in the U.S. Senate is based on the following list, in order:

Former U.S. Senator
Former Vice President of the United States
Former member of the U.S. House of Representatives
Former U.S. Cabinet official
Former Governor
State population size

Out of the 34 races across the country, 10 states have a population lower than Iowa. However, Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Senator John Boozman (R-AR), Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI), Senator Mike Crapo (R-ID), Senator Jerry Moran (R-KS), Senator John Hoeven (R-ND) and Senator John Thune (R-SD) are considered safe in their re-election.

With that being said, that leaves three states after Iowa that would affect Iowa’s negotiating power in Washington, D.C.: Nevada, New Hampshire and Vermont.

U.S. Senator for Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto is running against former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt.
U.S. Senator for New Hampshire Maggie Hassan is running against retired Army brigadier general Don Bolduc.
The Senate seat in Vermont is vacant. Democrat Congressman Peter Welch (VT-At Large) is running against the Republican, Gerald Malloy.

In an environment that favors Democrats in November, Mike Franken would be 100 out of 100 in U.S. Senate seniority. This is the most likely (although highly unlikely) scenario that would send Mike Franken to the U.S. Senate.

U.S. Senators Masto and Hassan would keep their place in seniority.
In Vermont, Welch would be more senior than Franken due to his service in the House of Representatives.

In an environment that reflects current predictions—with the exception of Iowa for this hypothetical— Mike Franken’s best hope would be 98 out of 100 in seniority.

As a safe Democrat seat, Vermont would elect Welch and he would be more senior than Franken due to his service in the House of Representatives.
As two toss-up races, U.S. Sens. Masto and Hassan would be voted out and be replaced by two Republicans that do not have qualifying service.
Therefore, the Senator-elect from New Hampshire would sit at 100, the Senator-elect from Nevada would sit at 99, and Franken would sit at 98.

In an environment that favors Republicans, but where Iowa flips, Franken would be 96 out of 100.

All three Republican candidates in Nevada, New Hampshire, and Vermont do not have qualifying experience to be moved up in Senate leadership, like Franken, therefore due to state population size, Iowa would be the 4th state on the list.