Grassley Works Releases State of the Race Memo Two Weeks from Election Day
TO: Interested Parties & Supporters
FR: Grassley Works Campaign
RE: State of the Race Two Weeks from Election Day
DA: Monday, October 24, 2022
Overview
With two weeks until Election Day, it’s clear Senator Chuck Grassley will comfortably win re-election.
Senator Grassley’s message is resonating with Iowans, including his tireless commitment to fight inflation, secure our border, lower gas prices, hold the Biden administration accountable, and support law enforcement through his leadership positions as a senior Republican on the Senate Judiciary, Finance, Budget, and Agriculture Committees.
Meanwhile, Mike Franken’s campaign is based on his unflinching support for Joe Biden, bizarre insults toward Iowa and Iowans, and an out-of-touch, extreme agenda that Iowa voters will reject on Nov. 8. Mike Franken says Joe Biden is doing a “fabulous job” as president, and he’s abdicated any responsibility for fighting inflation, despite supporting every single policy of President Biden’s that’s led to historic inflation.
Allegations of sexual misconduct against Mike Franken have blunted any possible momentum his campaign may have had over the summer, and his refusal to address these allegations with anything more than calling his accusers liars has been unconvincing and demoralizing for his liberal base, particularly in urban Iowa.
Senator Grassley continues to outwork Mike Franken on the ground and on television due to the sizable gap of cash-on-hand between the candidates and Franken’s high cost of fundraising.
With voting well underway, the get-out-the-vote efforts from the Republican Party of Iowa and the Grassley Works Campaign dwarf the diminished Iowa Democrat Party and the underfunded Franken campaign. Voter registration, voter enthusiasm and grassroots momentum all indicate Sen. Grassley’s path to another resounding victory.
The bottom line: Iowans know that nobody works harder or more effectively for Iowa than Chuck Grassley, and that’s why the Senator we need is the Senator we’ve got.
Endorsements
Senator Grassley is earning the endorsement of newspaper editorial boards, agricultural organizations, unions, and bipartisan elected officials.
Grassley is backed by women, farmers and veterans in each of Iowa’s 99 counties and has built campaign leadership in every county in the state. He received the endorsement of the Dubuque Telegraph Herald. The Iowa Farm Bureau and Iowa Corn Growers Association both announced their endorsements. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Council of Prison Locals-33, National Federation of Independent Business, the Iowa Bankers Association, Citizens For Responsible Energy Solutions, National Rifle Association, Susan B. Anthony List Candidate Fund PAC, Members of the Iowa House of Representatives and Iowa Senate, agriculture leaders across the state, former President Donald Trump and Trump administration officials and many high profile public servants, including former Democratic Senator and Obama administration official Max Baucus, have endorsed Grassley’s re-election.
“Iowans benefit tremendously from Chuck’s character, integrity, and work ethic. His commitment to work across the aisle is all the more valuable in a time of too much partisanship.” — Former Democratic Senator & Obama administration official Max Baucus
“…Grassley has been effective in office. He chaired the committee that passed Part D Medicare coverage of prescription drugs and continues to work on lowering drug prices. The fact that hearing aids are available over-the-counter as of this week is owing to Grassley legislation. He was ahead of the curve as the author of the wind energy tax credit. He seeks to expand Pell grants for trade certificate programs. And he continues to be vigilant in his commitment to watchdog spending.” – Dubuque Telegraph Herald
“With one in every five Iowans employed in agriculture and ag-related industries, we must elect Friend of Agriculture candidates who will continue to be champions for agriculture and the hard-working Iowa families who make their living feeding and fueling the world.” — Boone County farmer and Iowa Farm Bureau Federation PAC Chair Kriss Haglund
Polling
Public and private polling overwhelmingly show Senator Grassley with a double digit lead, which in nearly all cases is an increase since the end of summer, including polls from respected organizations like Emerson and Cygnal, as well as the Tarrance Group. These polls demonstrate the momentum is with Senator Grassley, and as more Iowans learn about Mike Franken’s extreme, liberal policy positions and his low opinion of Iowans themselves, Iowa voters will refuse to support his candidacy.
The only public poll that has shown a potentially closer race is from the Des Moines Register, which has been widely seen as an outlier. The Iowa Poll consistently undercounts eventual Republican support, as was the case with Joni Ernst in 2014, Chuck Grassley in 2016, Donald Trump in 2016, Kim Reynolds in 2018, Joni Ernst in 2020, and Donald Trump in 2020. Those who know Iowa best continue to understand that Chuck Grassley enjoys a comfortable lead with the support of Iowans. According to journalist Ben Jacobs, “While people are hyping changes from safe to likely, [it’s] worth noting that likely seats as ranked by Crystal Ball, rarely change hands. In 2020, Democrats didn’t win a single likely Republican seat…”
Nationally, polling continues to shift in the GOP’s favor, and President Biden remains underwater, suggesting longshot Democrat challengers have little-to-no opportunity to overcome their party’s deep unpopularity across the country, and particularly so in Iowa, which has become redder in every successive election for the better part of a decade.
Debate
In the debate which aired statewide, Senator Grassley displayed his deep policy understanding, vast experience, unparalleled ability to deliver, and his clear record of bipartisanship, effectiveness and commitment to staying in touch with Iowans.
Mike Franken repeated his call for the U.S. to send troops into Ukraine if Russia starts using nuclear weapons, bizarrely adding that our troops should not be allowed weapons to defend themselves in the war zone. Despite more than 532,000 Iowans having prescription drug coverage through Medicare Part D, Franken also claimed Medicare Part D was “worse than nothing,” got his facts wrong on numerous occasions, and failed to land any punches in what was likely his last opportunity to shift the fundamentals in this campaign.
Independent Iowa political experts agree. According to Lee Enterprises’ Des Moines Bureau Chief Caleb McCullough, Senator Grassley did a “decent job pretty well at defending his record and, you know, trying to paint Franken as the wrong choice and as extreme with how he portrayed things.” He went on to discuss Franken’s assault allegations, “I think notable was when Franken was asked about his allegations that he kissed a former staffer without her consent. He again denied them and kind of spun his answer to say that Chuck Grassley doesn’t support women….Grassley shot back, ‘You’re in no position to lecture me about women.’ It was a pretty, I guess, powerful moment from that debate.” According to Jared McNett of the Sioux City Journal, “one thing you never want to do is cue up your opponent for a clip like that. And so at least on that front…that was definitely a mistake by Franken.”
Issues
The issues on which Iowans will base their vote continue to favor Senator Grassley and other Republican candidates for office. Namely, inflation, the economy, illegal immigration, and crime are on top of voters’ minds, and there’s little opportunity for Democrats to improve on the matter with so little time left before the election and as food and energy prices continue to climb.
Notably, Mike Franken has expressed support for the “reapportionment” of police funding in a time of increasing crime. During a recent Good Morning America interview, Defund the Police advocate Cori Bush said: “Say ‘reallocate,’ say ‘divest,’ say ‘move.’ But it’s still the same thing.” Just like Bush, Franken is telling Democrats to mislead voters about their support for defunding the police.
Joe Biden is failing America as 40-year-high inflation forces Iowans to pay more for rent, groceries, utilities, and gas. Meanwhile, Mike Franken supports every single tax-and-spend policy of Joe Biden’s that’s caused historic inflation and he has even said senators have ‘no role’ in fighting inflation. That’s not leadership–that’s throwing in the towel.
On Biden’s watch, America’s on the wrong track with rising crime in our cities; falling student achievement in our schools; delayed and destroyed retirement plans due to a plummeting stock market; record waves of illegal immigration; historic number of overdose deaths from fentanyl pouring into local communities; and a shrinking economy. Chuck Grassley won’t abandon Iowans struggling to make ends meet in the Biden economy. Unlike his opponent, Chuck Grassley supports more border patrol agents, not hiring 87,000 new IRS agents to audit more middle class Americans.
No one in Washington carries more clout for American agriculture than Chuck Grassely. He’s one of two crop farmers in the U.S. Senate and the only farmer in this race. The new Farm Bill will be written next year and Iowa farmers want Chuck Grassley at the table.
Ads
Mike Franken’s penchant for insulting and alienating Iowans, particularly rural Iowans and women, has been a top theme on Iowa television airwaves. His lockstep support for the unpopular president and his out-of-touch assessment that Biden is doing a “fabulous job” will be on Iowans’ minds in the voting booth.
Senator Grassley has not only vastly outraised Mike Franken cycle-to-date, but an examination of Franken’s spending habits shows just how much money he is spending on fundraising efforts online. In the last 60 days alone, Mike Franken has spent $551,759, resulting in a significantly lower cash-on-hand, the metric that matters most for advertising budgets. The Q3 report showed Grassley Works with three times cash-on-hand than Mike Franken, meaning Franken will be vastly outspent in the closing weeks of the campaign when voters are most engaged.
Conclusion
Despite Mike Franken’s attempts to change the minds of Washington Democrats through beltway TV ad buys, even Democrat Senate leader Chuck Schumer has long recognized Mike Franken doesn’t have what it takes to beat Chuck Grassley. News media will always have a vested interest in making campaigns look more competitive than they are, but the reality is that Senator Grassley remains popular among Iowans because he works hard and delivers.
If Republicans take back the Senate, Senator Grassley will put a stop to Joe Biden’s inflationary agenda, hold his administration accountable for lawlessness on our streets and at our southern border, and serve as a check on Biden’s whacky liberal policy agenda that’s got our country on the wrong track.
As a lifelong Iowan and the only farmer in this race, Iowans have Senator Grassley’s back, and that’s why on November 8, Iowans will send him back to Washington where he’s worked his way to the top rung of the ladder in the Senate. There’s no one better positioned to keep fighting for Iowa.
